2 common (and interlinked) theories concerning shady practice by internet-based poker sites involve claims that sites unfairly favor new players and ‘punish ‘ people who profit and cash out with bad-beats. These beliefs are not only common, they're amazingly strongly held. This document investigates both, pointing out reasons which explain why these perceptions are so deep-dyed and then taking a look at the evidence supporting them.
We assess the questions of motive and methodology separately in our article asking ‘Is Online Poker Rigged?, here we will target some reasons explaining why the perception of ‘Beginner’s Luck ‘ became established in poker communities internationally. One vital area of poker which many players don't totally appreciate is the short-term swings of fortune in the game “or rather the size of the fluctuations in your bankroll made possible by only one or two key hands. An example will illustrate how easily your bankroll can change:
Imagine 2 identically skilled players, each playing in the $100 buy-in No-Limit Holdem games for 25 hours in their first month online. Each have identical results winning $4 per hour from the tables while they study the details. The only difference in their hands came in their opponent’s holding one time when they were dealt a pair of Kings. Player A got all-in pre-flop against a contestant with a pair of Queens, and won $100. Player B also got all-in pre-flop, only this time his competitor had aces and he lost $100 instead.
At the end of their first month:
Player A had grown his bankroll by $200 “a respectable $8 per hour at the $100 NL game.
Player B had not grown his bankroll by a single penny.
This is just one hand, if you imagine one more where a contestant hit a straight or you were dealt top set against a premium pair you can rapidly see how just a few hands can make a big difference to your money. As for contests the swings can have a bigger effect. Now, take under consideration that most players start out as slight losers (while they learn the ropes). Yet, due to the chance fall of cards around half of them could see their poker bankrolls grow rapidly in the near term, before the grim reality of their inferior skills over time evened things out in favour of more experienced/skilled opponents.
Newbs luck is a natural reason “nevertheless the fact that this doesn't last can be explained by having a gigantic sample size to reduce the effects of your lucky start, and not really by labeling the poker site as cheating.
The Poker Money Out Curse
When you consider how simply a good coin-flip or run of premium pairs can cause a players bankroll to expand over the short term. Extrapolating this to the ‘Cash Out Curse’ becomes easy. The enjoyment of withdrawing those prize from the poker site blinds players to the undeniable fact that their prize may have been the result of chance rather than talent. Naturally presuming good fortune is directly caused by us and bad fortune by external factors is a great mental defensive mechanism “however it regularly blinds new poker players to the fact that they won't be as skilled as they at first thought. As in our previous example, one or two key hands could make a large short term difference. Cashing out that money is always a brilliant idea, however blaming the poker sites for being ‘rigged ‘ when your true win-rate is later disclosed is often a wrong conclusion to draw!
Is online poker rigged? For an inventory of fair poker sites, try the links provided.
